“Easing Off”
(Ease off: कम होना; to gradually stop or become less)
India’s COVID-19 case and fatality rates (मृत्यु दर; the number of people within a particular group who are killed by a particular cause) have fallen from the peaks reached in September
As 2020 draws to a close (अंत होने को; to make something come to an end), Indians will look forward to the new year with wariness (सतर्कता; caution about possible dangers or problems; carefulness) and hope after suffering one of the worst years in history, healthwise (nearly 1,48,000 registered deaths due to COVID19) and economically (loss of livelihoods).
The pandemic continues to rage (प्रकोप/तेज़ी से फैलना; to happen in a strong or violent way) — daily infections and deaths are scaling fresh peaks in Europe, the U.S. is closing in on 20 million confirmed cases and 3.4 lakh deaths and in some countries in Latin America, cases have remained high and are rising.
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In contrast (इसके विपरीत; different from it), while India still registers the highest number of daily infections and deaths in Asia, the daily rate has come down significantly (सार्थक रूप से; positively or importantly) to a seven day rolling average of less than 24,000 cases and 250 deaths between December 2026, from the peak of close to a lakh and more than a 1,000 deaths a day in mid-September.
These are much lower numbers compared to the U.S. and comparably fewer than those registered in the larger countries in Europe and Latin America. India still tests a middling number: 732 tests and 15.8 confirmed cases per million people, compared to the rest of the world. The testing numbers have fallen slightly in the past month, but the significant drop in recorded deaths suggests that, rather than experiencing a new peak in daily infections and deaths, India still remains in the “down phase (निचले चरण; lower stage)” since the September peak.
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That the case and death curves are headed further south is a good sign for the health infrastructure. While no other country barring (को छोड़कर; except) the U.S. has reached or crossed the per day peak of nearly one lakh cases that India registered in September, the lower number of cases registered recently even as the country eased its physical distancing measures and travel restrictions and went through a festive season might come as a surprise.
But as virologists (विषाणुविज्ञानी; a scientist who studies viruses and the diseases that they cause) Jacob John and M.S. Seshadri have argued, the peaking in September denoted the pandemic’s widespread nature in urban and semiurban areas and was reflected even more apparently in the ICMR’s serosurveys (survey to test blood serum from a group of individuals to determine seroprevalence as of antibodies).
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These serosurveys revealed a much higher number of undetected infections, many of them asymptomatic (अलक्षणी/लक्षणविहीन; showing no symptoms of a particular disease), before the September peak. As the virus ravaged (तबाह/बरबाद कर देना; to cause great damage to something or someone) the urban centres and spread to rural areas, the virologists estimated that nearly a third of the population had already been exposed, indicating that half of the “herd immunity (यूथ रोगक्षमता/झुंड प्रतिरक्षा; a situation in which a disease cannot spread through a group of people because enough of them are immune, usually because of having been vaccinated)” level required to end the spread had already been reached by mid-September.
This explains why daily case and fatality rates stay low and also suggests that after India begins its vaccination drive, the epidemic should ease further and could become endemic (स्थानिक; a disease found particularly in a specific area or group). This does not lessen the dangers of local outbreaks (प्रकोप; a time when something suddenly begins, especially a disease or something else dangerous) and the complications of the spread of new variants (भिन्न/प्रकार; something that is slightly different from other similar things) from abroad.
The standard safety measures — mask wearing, hand hygiene, absence of crowding and renewed testing and tracing — must remain.
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